How Reliable Is My Prognosis?
Your prognosis does not tell you how you as an individual will do. It is a statistical probability that helps predict patterns of outcome in populations of people with your illness. Many people with a 2 percent chance of cure at the time they were diagnosed are now cured of their cancer; conversely, many people who had a 95 percent chance of cure at the time they were diagnosed succumbed to their disease. There is no way to predict which individuals will be on the unfortunate side of great statistics and which on the exceptionally good side of terrible statistics. Favorable statistics do not guarantee that you will do well; unfavorable statistics do not guarantee that you will do poorly. Some individuals have recovered from every type of cancer; every type of cancer can be treated in some way.
If My Prognosis Cannot Predict How I Will Do, Why Am I Ever Told My Prognosis?
Your prognosis is useful when it is considered to be one of many factors that help you and your doctors decide when and how to treat your cancer. It is also important in helping you make major decisions, such as those involved in family, career, and financial planning.
It must be emphasized that your prognosis does not guarantee anything one way or the other. One man was given a poor prognosis. After he started chemotherapy, he broke off his marriage engagement, dropped out of the amateur baseball league that he loved, and settled into a routine of going to work and then coming home to “wait for the end.” His cancer responded, and he remained in remission ten years later. During those ten years, his fiancée moved away and married, and his baseball team won three pennants. His prognosis may have been bad, but he did well.
The unreliability of your prognosis can misguide you the opposite way, too. One woman was told that her prognosis was excellent, with a 96 percent chance of cure. Encouraged, she proceeded with her lifelong plans to start her own business. Unfortunately, she was one of the 4 percent who were not cured. She became too ill to work and lost all her savings in her business before it had a chance to succeed. Statistically speaking, she may have had a greater chance of being killed in a car accident than of having a recurrence, so her decision to proceed with the business was very reasonable. The point is that your prognosis provides no guarantee as to what happens with your cancer.
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